[Kompilasi] Market Outlook Indonesia 2016

Beberapa hari yang lalu saya menyempatkan ikut free seminar yang diadakan oleh KDB Daewoo Securities tentang Market Outlook 2016, meskipun hanya bertahan beberapa menit karena penyampaiannya yang membosankan dan membuat lapar, setidaknya materi presentasi sudah dikirim via email. Oke lah, it doesn’t matter.

Berawal dari situ lah, saya mencoba mengumpulkan beberapa Market Outlook 2016 dari berbagai macam sekuritas. Ya, saya salah satu orang yang menganggap Market Outlook itu penting sebagai peta dan petunjuk berinvestasi dalam setahun kedepan, dan harusnya anda pun seperti itu.

Dikutip dari beberapa grup chatting dan ada pula sumbangan dari broker saya juga, saya berhasil mengumpulkan kurang lebih belasan Market Outlook 2016 yang isinya pun sebenarnya macam-macam dari sisi pasar modal atau ada juga yang membahas makro ekonomi secara global.

Selebihnya bisa download satu-satu, berikut daftarnya:

1. CITI INDONESIAN STRATEGY WHAT TO EXPECT FOR NEXT YEAR?

We are maintaining our index target of 5,700 by end of 2016. Our top picks are BBNI, INTP, ASII, JSMR, LPPF, MIKA, BSDE, PWON, MMLP, TOTO, PTPP. ADHI and MAPI. See more…

2. CIMB STRATEGY | ALPHA EDGE – TURNING POINT IN 1Q16? 

  • S&P500’s uptrend is still intact. 1,850pts is the key support level.
  • Dollar Index should peak in 1Q16 and trade sideways in 2016.
  • Crude oil prices should also bottom, in line with the likely Dollar Index US$ peak in 1Q16.
  • Gold prices showing potential bullish wedge formation. Prices should bottom soon.
  • Asia’s equity market is still in a rebound phase but could see new lows in 1Q16 before it finally bottoms. See More…

3. MAYBANK INDONESIA STRATEGY – EVERY CLOUD HAS A SILVER LINING

  • More positive on the market, with catalysts expected from 2016 economic & earnings recoveries.
  • Index 2016 target at 6.000, 14.9x FY17 P/E.
  • Top picks: AALI, ACES, ASII, BBRI, BSDE, GGRM, JSMR, LPCK, TLKM & WSKT.
  • Worst case already priced in. Expect further economic & earnings improvements in 4Q15/2016.
  • Further monetary easing possible in 1Q16. See more…

4. JP MORGAN ASEAN YEAR AHEAD 2016 – STOCK IDEAS INDONESIA

  • Top picks : WIKA
  • Stock to avoid : INCO

JPM ASEAN EQUITY STRATEGY

Outlook
In Indonesaa (OW), we are seeing accelerated government spending Infrastructure proyects are moving forward. Inflation is easing, and currency fundamental is improving Auto and cement demand is recovering.

Our Key Trades
-Cautious banks and UW telcos (ex Indo)
-OW Indonesia Contractors (WIKA).
-Price repair in Indo Telco’s price erosion elsewhere
-A selective relook at consumers OW LPPF, MAPI, INDF

5. MORGAN STANLEY 2016 INDONESIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – What Kind of Growth Recovery Will We See?

Tweaking forecasts: We are raising our GDP growth forecasts for 2015, 2016, and 2017 from 4.6%, 4.8%, and 5.1% to 4.7%, 5.0%, and 5.2%. This takes into account an earlier-than-expected growth trough and the mild growth recovery that we expect thereafter. See more…

6. KDB DAEWOO : 2016 OUTLOOK REPORT BITTER BUT ONCE AGAIN

Our JCI target for 2016
Bear 4,120
Base 4,809
Bull 5,498

Our bear case target for the JCI stands at 4,120pt (2.0x P/B) a level seen during the recent sell-off. Given our assumption that the worst part of the cycle is behind us, we expect the JCI to show tendency to converge into long-term historical average valuations (2.7x PMB 5,498pt) which is our bull case target. As we believe it’s still premature to discuss a solid turnaround, we apply a mid- point target valuation (2.3x P/B) for our base case target of 4,809pt. We suggest investors to look into macro cyclical ectors such as banks, property and basic industry. See more…

7. SCHRODER Outlook 2016: Emerging Market Equities

Developed world economic growth remains sub-trend but should benefit in 2016 from the ongoing lagged effect of a halving in energy prices. It should also be supported by further stimulus, with the European Central Bank in particular looking to keep policy loose for longer. This in turn should be positive for EMs where economic growth surprises have been showing some signs of improvement after successive years of disappointment, although earnings have so far been slow to pick up. See more…

7.1 Schroder Economic and Strategy Viewpoint 

We have trimmed our forecast for global growth to 2.6% for 2016 from 2.9% as although global demand has held up, there is little momentum and still some signs of excess inventory to clear. The benefits from lower oil prices will continue to support consumer spending, but inflation is set to rise and the oil dividend fade in 2016. See more…

7.2. Schroder: Outlook 2016: Asia Ex Japan Equities

For the year ahead, our preferred areas for investment are companies with strong cash flows and, in this low earnings growth environment, low cost producers that also have a flexible cost base. See more…

7.3 Schroder Outlook 2016: Emerging Markets Debt Relative

Moving into 2016, we see the internal issues for the asset class as slowly healing. Given the universally negative sentiment surrounding the asset class, an improvement in factors externally would bring a much better environment. See more…

8. DBS GROUP INDONESIA MARKET FOCUS – INDONESIA MARKET STRATEGY (9 Oct 2015)

Third time’s the charm?

  • Major element is a reduction in energy prices to help industries
  • Third package meant to encourage investments and boost rupiah
  • Expectations of additional stimulus measures next week will keep sentiment bullish. See more…

9. TRIMEGAH EQUITY STRATEGY 2016 OUTLOOK – LOOKING AT THE GLASS HALF FULL (November 20, 2015)

We are optimistic that 4.75% 3Q GDP is an inflection point to faster economic growth rate, albeit a gradual one. We expect 4.8-4.9% 4Q GDP and 5.0% 2016 GDP. In 10m15, infra spending realization has reached Rp86tr, a 31% YoY growth versus same period last year. See more…

10. CLSA INDO : MARKET STRATEGY – UPGRADING JCI & BUY RATE SENSITIVES

Indo HoR Sarina Lesmina raises her 2016 JCI forecast to 5,150 today, highlighting that the stage for recovery is set as the government and Bank Indonesia are working in unison.

A look at the backdrop for Indonesia heading into 2016:

Bank Indonesia – Accommodative monetary policy in 2H15

Without cutting rates, BI has adopted “accommodative” monetary policy to support pro-growth stance – including:

  • Relaxation on LTV for mortgage/auto loans
  • Adoption of LFR (loan-to-funding ration)
  • Recent 50bps shave in primary reserve requirement
  • OJK also issued relaxation on RWA for mortgage and KUR loans

In her latest market strategy piece this morning, Sarina takes a closer look into the asset revaluation stimulus, highlighting it will enable corporates to recapitalize and increase capital base for banks that have the appetite to boost loan growth.

  • Improving Business Confidence
  • Infrastructure spending is picking up, boosted by 24-35% YoY
  • 4W monthly wholesales bottomed?
  • Consumer spending picking up!

Macro backdrop for easing cycle in 2016

  • Low inflation

Spread cushion to US10YR, presently at +640 bps vs. +540bps avg.

Add the declining CAD which historically discourages foreign investors in times of USD strength, are reasons why economist Tony Nafte thinks Indonesia potentially has the most room to ease in 2016.

Of course, how much BI can cut will ultimately be contingent on rupiah stability post Fed lift off in December, as well as schedule of further Fed hikes in 2016. Sales desk would argue that a forward schedule more gradual than street estimate of +75-100bps in 2016 would allow BI to be more aggressive in easing.

So? Time to add some interest rate sensitive names? Banks and properties are the usual suspects.

And who amongst the banks want to grow the most in FY16? BRI, BNI and BTN seem to have more ambitious growth targets for respective segments (micro, KUR and low cost housing).

Cheaper auto loans combined with new product cycle will also given investor further reason to buy the historical market proxy: Astra International (ASII IJ).

11. Nomura – Indonesia Equity Strategy 2016 (Desember 10, 2015)

End-2016F JCI target of 5,200

2015 has been something of a disappointment, with the government dogged by administrative constraints and unfavourable politics in delivering infrastructure progress. We are now more optimistic, given the gradual domestic demand-led recovery, supported by stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies. Evidence of increased commitment in making a strong push is comforting, with the government holding early tendering of contracts and simplifying guidelines at local government levels. See more…

12. MATERI SEMINAR – MARKET OUTLOOK 2016 KDB DAEWOO SECURITIES

Our house macro assumptions: Maintain the GDP growth projection for 2015F and 2016F at 4.8% and 5.0%, respectively. Onward in 2016, private consumption will be the key growth driver of Indonesia’s economy, while investment growth will provide an additional propulsion to the economic output. Currency rate for 2016 full year average USD/IDR target expected to be around IDR14,200 to IDR14,500. See more…

Seperti itu lah seninya dalam melihat ekonomi makro, banyak yang optimis tapi ada juga yang masih pesimis terhadap perekonomian satu tahun kedepan. Silahkan gunakan informasi tersebut dengan bijak, dan benar.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Time limit is exhausted. Please reload CAPTCHA.